Oscar Nominations

Normally, I'd post this over on Livejournal, but I'm in the midst of my annual year-end lists so I don't want to mess up the rhythm. The nominations were just announced this morning and, boy, do I have several bones to pick...

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

No real surprises here other than The Reader. All the other nominees were pretty much a lock going into awards season with Slumdog being the indie darling and Milk being the politically charged selection. I didn’t expect The Dark Knight to get a nod, but I figured that final slot would have gone to The Wrestler or either one of Clint Eastwood’s films. I figured if either of Kate Winslet’s pictures would have gotten a Best Picture nom it would have been Revolutionary Road since that’s the exact kind of film the Academy loves (see Little Children, American Beauty). Benjamin Button is another film that has a good chance of netting the gold statuette, an epic love story with actors hidden behind layers of make-up and playing varying ages. A clear cut winner is tough to call. Personally, I think Milk is the best film out of the bunch, but I could see either Benjamin Button or Slumdog walking away with the statuette.

Who Should Win: Milk
Who Will Win: Benjamin Button or Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Again, no surprises here as the Academy plays it safe once more. Brad Pitt and Sean Penn are your usual suspects, Mickey is your comeback kid, and Langella is your biopic actor. Jenkins sneaks in as this year’s lesser-known nomination. He’s a long shot, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he won some sympathy votes against his more famous competition. I’m surprised that Clint Eastwood didn’t get a nomination for Gran Torino, mostly because he IS Clint Eastwood. No love for Colin Farell either.

If the Golden Globes are a good indication of where the votes will fall, then Mickey Rourke could be a shoe-in. For the last three years, the Best Actor winners (in the drama category) for the Golden Globes went on to collect the Oscar as well. Also, The Wrestler isn’t nominated for any other categories aside from Best Supporting Actress for Marisa Tomei. This is his award to win with Sean Penn a close second and Frank Langella coming in third.

Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Kate’s got a lot of momentum going in due to her double victory at the Golden Globes so she’s the odds-on favorite. Her chances also increase because I don’t see The Reader winning in any other category. Much like last year, we have two newcomers against more established actresses with multiple nominations or wins. Personally, my pick is Melissa Leo and since Marion Cotillard pulled in the upset last year, she’s not such a long shot. I am disappointed that neither Sally Hawkins (who snagged a Golden Globe) nor Michelle Williams are present. They were two great performances in a pair of films that deserve more notoriety.

Who Should Win: Melissa Leo
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Michael Shannon is the only surprise here. I haven’t seen the film yet, but he was great in Shotgun Stories and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. Hoffman is in because he is Hoffman. Brolin almost came out of nowhere last year with a number of remarkable performances and 2008 was no different. I’m happy to see Robert Downey Jr. get a nod for his hilarious turn as Kirk Lazarus and it seems the supporting categories are the only time when the Academy ever recognizes comedic performances. However, Heath Ledger seems to be the man to beat. If he does win, I hope it’s because they really thought his performance was that good (I thought it was) and they aren’t giving a pity vote. Peter Finch won Best Actor posthumously for Network so it isn’t unprecedented. If not Heath, then Hoffman and Michael Shannon as an outside chance.

Even though Heath got all the attention, I thought Gary Oldman and Aaron Eckhart each did a fantastic job in The Dark Knight. James Franco was also snubbed as I think he could have been nominated for Milk or even Pineapple Express. Same goes for Ralph Fiennes for any one of his performances in The Duchess, In Bruges, or The Reader.

Who Should Win: Heath Ledger
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Taraji P. Hanson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

Amy Adams gets a second Best Supporting nomination with that same type of wide-eyed naiveté she portrayed in her breakout role from Junebug. Meanwhile, Penelope Cruz gets her second Oscar nomination overall with her first for her lead role in Volver. Marisa Tomei gets her third nomination in this category with the previous two being In the Bedroom and her controversial win for My Cousin Vinny. I’d say the newcomers are the odds-on favorites this year. Viola Davis is getting a lot of buzz (and deservedly so) for her brief role in Doubt. You also have to take into account that Best Supporting Actress seems to be the consolation prize to any film that doesn’t win in any of the major categories.

Who Should Win: Marisa Tomei
Who Will Win: Viola Davis

Best Director
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Since 1990, there have been only four instances where the winners for Best Director did not go on to win Best Picture. I could stretch things back further, but I’m too lazy to do the research at the moment. I think the odds-on favorites here have to be David Fincher and Danny Boyle. The former for making an epic near-three hour long film with tons of special effects and the latter for directing a dazzling, feel-good, indie darling. Benjamin Button is more in line with the types of films the Academy loves, but Slumdog is the little picture that could. Of course, the voters could always split the difference. Since I’m picking Slumdog for Best Picture, I’ll go with Boyle for Best Director.

Definitely overlooked Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Tomas Alfredson (Let the Right One In), and Jon Favreau (Iron Man).

Who Should Win: Danny Boyle
Who Will Win: Danny Boyle

Best Original Screenplay
Courtney Hunt (Frozen River)
Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Martin McDonagh (In Bruges)
Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter & Jim Reardon (Wall-E)

Wall-E has an outside shot, but since it’s a 99.999% assured to win the Best Animated Film award, it probably won’t win here. For me, the race is between Milk and In Bruges. The voters will probably go for the former while I chose the latter. This is another instance where The Wrestler was overlooked.

Who Should Win: In Bruges
Who Will Win: Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth & Robin Swicord (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon)
David Hare (The Reader)
Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)

Once again, the odds-on favorites are probably Slumdog and Benjamin Button. The last two winners in this category went on to win Best Picture. I’m guessing that they’ll split the difference here.

Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

I do think Waltz with Bashir should have gotten a nod here. In any case, Pixar pretty much owns this category and Wall-E is practically a lock here.

Who Should Win: Wall-E
Who Will Win: Wall-E

Best Documentary
The Betrayal – Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

I’ve seen more documentaries this year than I have in previous years. Even then, I’ve only seen Encounters and Man on Wire. The latter doc has seen overwhelming critical approval. However, Trouble the Water (centering around the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina) seems to be the most politically charged and socially relevant nominee.

Who Should Win: Since I haven’t seen all 5 films, I’ll refrain from choosing.
Who Will Win: Trouble the Water

Best Foreign Film
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex
Entre les murs (The Class)
Revanche
Okuribito (Depatures)
Vals Im Bashir (Waltz with Bashir

Not going to predict a winner here, just complain. I won’t judge too harshly since I’ve only seen one of these films, but it seems like the Foreign Film category gets more and more useless every year. I can’t believe Let the Right One In didn’t get nominated. I know, I know, Sweden submitted another picture as their submission, but still. This isn’t the first time a great foreign film gets snubbed due to the Academy’s stringent technicalities. Remember The Motorcycle Diaries?

Best Original Song
“Down to Earth” (Wall-E
“Jai Ho” (Slumdog Millionaire)
“O Saya” (Slumdog Millionaire)

Umm…what the Hell happened here? Three nominees? Only three? Didn’t they nominate three songs alone from Enchanted one year? A list of about forty or so songs was circulated a while back as top contenders so I have no idea what they were thinking in dropping it down to a scant three nominees. I can only assume that they just didn’t want to slow down the awards ceremony with too many musical performances. It’s completely ridiculous to be honest. No nominations for “The Wrestler” or “Gran Torino”? How do you snub both Bruce Springsteen AND Clint Eastwood at the same time? I’m not even going to bother.